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Leadership In Hard Times:

Whether in business or government, leaders are in the midst of hard times. For many leaders, these hard times provide an opportunity to strengthen their leadership positions. Leaders who seize the opportunities within a crisis can refashion their strategic vision for the future of their organizations, remobilize resources, and enlist the powerful emotions generated in a crisis to strengthen their ties with their followers.

Global Challenges And Domestic Opportunities:

Political and economic challenges abound. The "War against Terrorism," the failure of Middle Eastern states, and the simultaneous economic slowdowns in the US, Japan, and Germany all pose daunting challenges to US and European companies and to the US Government. Perceptions of political risk have increased, as has aversion to political risk. But this is also a time of recrystalization in international relations and global business. New alliances and coalitions are emerging. New opportunities for business consolidation across national boundaries are present. All those suggest the possibility of greater success in the coming global turnaround.

Threats And Opportunities In The War Against Terrorism:

The threats are obvious - the failure to capture bin Laden and other senior al Queda leaders pose clear threats. But other threats are no less real - the war in Iraq, a catastrophic US military accident with huge casualties, the disintegration of nuclear Pakistan, and the radicalization of the Islamic peoples of the Middle East. But so are the opportunities. This is the time for the US to restructure its military away from its Cold War posture to meet the new threats. It is a time for the US to strengthen its foreign policy apparatus and build a cadre of civilian foreign policy experts. This is the time for the US to fashion a true global coalition against terrorism and against weapons of mass destruction that will lead to new relations with Russia, India, and China. This is also the opportunity for the US to lead a more vibrant global economy with lessened political risks.

Globalization And Political Risk After September 11:

Following September 11, globalization has slowed. Borders are less porous and the flow of goods and services and capital and people across national boundaries has increased less rapidly than in past decades. Nonetheless, globalization is a reality and will continue to be a major driver of business success. The challenge for companies is to make more effective country bets in the future-to be able to increase their global presence while minimizing the added political risk that entails. The challenge for governments is to conduct a coordinated global campaign to stimulate economic growth. The economic slowdown makes both those challenges less likely to be successfully met in the near future. Despite that, these challenges will become a reality over the long term.

Getting To The Future - The Ten Principal Drivers Of The Global Economy:

Powerful forces are at work that will transform the world within this decade. Many of these forces are recognized but their extraordinary power is not. Technology is on an exponential growth curve. Governments are losing power to Supra-national organizations, companies, and non-governmental organizations. Powerful demographic trends have resulted in fewer births everywhere but especially in the rich countries as well as in dramatically ageing populations. These and the other "global drivers" are examined and their implications for business and governments are examined.

The Triumph Of The Markets - Global Politics And Economics:

The gap between the rich countries and the poor countries is not widening. In fact, for the majority of the world's population, that gap is diminishing. Some 70 developing countries have adopted many of the features of market economies and are growing their economies faster than the 30 rich countries. These rapid growers include India and China with 40 percent of the world's population between them. As a result, the gap between a majority of the poor, living in these 70 countries, and the rich countries has been diminishing for a decade. But there are another 100 countries in the world that have not adopted market economy features and have not joined the trend towards globalization, whose populations are not only not getting richer, but frequently are actually getting poorer. The income gap between those 100 failing states and the rest of the world is widening rapidly. It is from those countries that future global instability and threats to the US will emerge unless the rich countries take concerted and vigorous action to generate economic development in those countries.

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